| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Introduction: Population dynamics are central to policymaking and future planning, commanding perpetual governmental attention across economic, social, and cultural domains. This study focuses on forecasting fertility indicators in Ilam city, projecting trends in five-year intervals up to 2051.
Material & Methods: The "secondary document analysis" method was employed, utilizing data from the country's population censuses (1976-2016), birth events, and population statistics reported by Iran’s National Organization for Civil Registration. The urban area of Ilam served as the study's location. A mixed-method approach to population forecasting, involving the use of Spectrum, Mortpak, and Excel, was employed for fertility status prediction and analysis.
Results: The research outcomes indicate that under two scenarios with fixed and minimal thresholds (fertility rates of 1.8 and 1.5, respectively), the net reproduction rate (NRR) would fall below one girl.
Conclusion: Based on these scenarios, it is evident that girls cannot replace their mothers in bearing children, contributing to the observed decline in fertility and, consequently, the population of Ilam city. |
| نویسندگان مقاله |
| Aziz Morad Morad Nezhad
Department of Population Studies, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran,Iran
| Ali Pajohan
Department of Population Studies, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran,Iran
| Seyed Naser Hejazi
Department of Sociology, Dehaghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
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